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Odds boards / Economics

Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?

Live Kalshi odds · 12 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Jerome Powell75%
2
Beth Hammack75%
3
Lorie Logan74%
4
John Williams2%
5
Kevin Warsh1%
6
Philip Jefferson0%
7
Michelle Bowman0%
8
Christopher Waller0%
9
Michael Barr0%
10
Lisa Cook0%
11
Anna Paulson0%
12
Neel Kashkari0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 227%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
75¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
87¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+10¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 87.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 75c. Based on 46 settled economics markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 10c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 76% of the time (n=1,965). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Jerome Powell at 75¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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