What are the current odds for Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026??

Ilhan Omar 37%, Cassidy Hutchinson 31%, John Brennan 27%, Anthony Fauci 22%, Kimberly Guilfoyle 20%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Economics

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 43 outcomesMultiple can happen

▼10Biggest move: Ilhan Omar down to 37% recently.

Ilhan Omar▼1037%

Cassidy Hutchinson▼231%

John Brennan▲327%

Anthony Fauci▼122%

Kimberly Guilfoyle▲920%

Jennifer Siebel Newsom▲513%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 455%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

37¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

55¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+16¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 55.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 37c. Based on 40 settled economics markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 16c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=3,133). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Ilhan Omar at 37¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.