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Odds boards / Economics

US real GDP growth in 2029?

Live Kalshi odds · 14 outcomesOne winner
1
2.1% to 2.5%16%
2
2.6% to 3.0%15%
3
1.6% to 2.0%9%
4
0.0% or Below8%
5
5.1% to 5.5%6%
6
3.1% to 3.5%4%
7
6.1% or Above4%
8
4.6% to 5.0%3%
9
5.6% to 6.0%1%
10
0.1% to 0.5%0%
11
0.6% to 1.0%0%
12
1.1% to 1.5%0%
13
3.6% to 4.0%0%
14
4.1% to 4.5%0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 66%, a 34-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 16%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 2.1% to 2.5% at 16¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXGDPYEAR-29">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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