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Odds boards / Economics

US real GDP growth in 2033?

Live Kalshi odds · 14 outcomesOne winner
1
1.1% to 1.5%49%
2
1.6% to 2.0%12%
3
0.0% or Below10%
4
0.1% to 0.5%9%
5
6.1% or Above9%
6
2.1% to 2.5%8%
7
2.6% to 3.0%8%
8
3.1% to 3.5%8%
9
4.1% to 4.5%5%
10
4.6% to 5.0%5%
11
5.6% to 6.0%5%
12
0.6% to 1.0%4%
13
3.6% to 4.0%3%
14
5.1% to 5.5%3%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 138%, a 38-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
49¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
43¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-4¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 42.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 49c. Based on 2,276 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=2,276). The price implies 49%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 1.1% to 1.5% at 49¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXGDPYEAR-33">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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