What are the current odds for Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election??

Narendra Modi 33%, Rahul Gandhi 33%, Yogi Adityanath 19%, Devendra Fadnavis 6%, Akhilesh Yadav 3%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?

Live Kalshi odds · 9 outcomesOne winner

N. Chandrababu Naidu2%

Nitin Gadkari2%

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 101% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

33¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

30¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 29.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 33c. Based on 212 settled other markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 35% of the time (n=3,577). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Narendra Modi at 33¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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