What are the current odds for S&P price on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT??

7,515 or above 98%, 7,505 or above 95%, 7,510 or above 95%, 7,550 or above 95%, 7,500 or above 93%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Other

S&P price on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Live Kalshi odds · 80 outcomesMultiple can happen

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 2126%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

98¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

96¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 95.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 98c. Based on 122 settled other markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,435). The price implies 98%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, 7,515 or above at 98¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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