Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 76%, a 24-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
33¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
34¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 34.2% of the time against a 33c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 3,132 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=3,132). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, The Democrats at 33¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXISRAEL4TH-26OCT27-4">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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