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Odds boards / Economics

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 7, 2026

Live Kalshi odds · 11 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
At least 210,0006%
2
At least 165,0000%
3
At least 170,0000%
4
At least 175,0000%
5
At least 180,0000%
6
At least 185,0000%
7
At least 190,0000%
8
At least 195,0000%
9
At least 200,0000%
10
At least 205,0000%
11
At least 215,0000%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 6%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
6¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
9¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
+2¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 8.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 6c. Based on 69 settled economics markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=2,258). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, At least 210,000 at 6¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26NOV12">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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