Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 100%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
39¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
32¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-5¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 32.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 39c. Based on 187 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough other history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 32% of the time (n=187). The price implies 39%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Troy Rohrbaugh at 39¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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