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Chicago Marathon Top American Male

Live Kalshi odds · 23 outcomesOne winner
▲22Biggest move: Vincent Mauri up to 55% recently.
1
Vincent Mauri▲2255%
2
Charles Hicks▲648%
3
Clayton Young20%
4
Abbabiya Simbassa1%
5
Galen Rupp0%
6
Haftu Knight0%
7
CJ Albertson0%
8
Daniel Mesfun0%
9
Alex Maier0%
10
Murphy Smith0%
11
Brian Shrader0%
12
Reed Fischer0%
13
Jacob Thomson0%
14
Frank Lara0%
15
Ryan Johnson0%
16
Nathan Martin0%
17
Chris Maxon0%
18
Patrick Cullen0%
19
Afeworki Zeru0%
20
Ethan Gregg0%
21
Awet Beraki0%
22
Shuaib Aljabaly0%
23
Caleb Kerr0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 124%, a 24-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
55¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
58¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 55c. Based on 322 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=3,517). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Vincent Mauri at 55¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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