What are the current odds for Will the midterms happen on time??

Yes 91%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Other

Will the midterms happen on time?

Live Kalshi odds · 1 outcomesMultiple can happen

Yes▲191%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 91%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

91¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

93¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 92.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 91c. Based on 69 settled other markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Yes at 91¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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