What are the current odds for Miami vs Chicago C: Home Runs?

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1+ 18%, Kyle Stowers: 1+ 14%, Heriberto Hernández: 1+ 14%, Seiya Suzuki: 1+ 12%, Griffin Conine: 1+ 11%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Sports

Miami vs Chicago C: Home Runs

Live Kalshi odds · 35 outcomesMultiple can happen

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1+18%

Kyle Stowers: 1+14%

Heriberto Hernández: 1+14%

Seiya Suzuki: 1+12%

Griffin Conine: 1+11%

Michael Busch: 1+10%

Dansby Swanson: 1+10%

Ian Happ: 1+9%

Agustín Ramírez: 1+9%

Michael Conforto: 1+9%

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2+2%

Agustín Ramírez: 2+0%

Graham Pauley: 2+0%

Griffin Conine: 2+0%

Heriberto Hernández: 2+0%

Jakob Marsee: 2+0%

Javier Sanoja: 2+0%

Joe Mack: 2+0%

Michael Conforto: 2+0%

Miguel Amaya: 2+0%

Otto Lopez: 2+0%

Pedro Ramirez: 2+0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 180%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

18¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

13¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 13.3% of the time, and the crowd is charging 18c. Based on 1,051 settled sports markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=1,326). The price implies 18%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1+ at 18¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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