What are the current odds for Who will the next Pope be??

Pierbattista Pizzaballa 4%, Pietro Parolin 4%, Luis Antonio Tagle 4%, Fridolin Ambongo 3%, Matteo Zuppi 3%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Who will the next Pope be?

Live Kalshi odds · 7 outcomesOne winner

Pierbattista Pizzaballa4%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 24%, a 76-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

4¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

10¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 10.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 4c. Based on 48 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 4%, so historically this band has come in about 10 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Pierbattista Pizzaballa at 4¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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