Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 81%, a 19-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
57¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
59¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 58.5% of the time against a 57c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 41 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 58% of the time (n=309). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, John Waldron at 57¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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