Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 61%, a 39-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 18%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Alexander Stubb at 18¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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