What are the current odds for Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK??

Nigel Farage 25%, Kemi Badenoch 24%, Shabana Mahmood 19%, Pat McFadden 7%, Rupert Lowe 5%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Live Kalshi odds · 29 outcomesOne winner

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 88%, a 12-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

25¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

18¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 18.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 25c. Based on 271 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 26% of the time (n=3,320). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Nigel Farage at 25¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

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