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Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Live Kalshi odds · 25 outcomesOne winner
1
Kemi Badenoch26%
2
Nigel Farage22%
3
Angela Rayner7%
4
Pat McFadden7%
5
Wes Streeting0%
6
Louise Haigh0%
7
No new person0%
8
Shabana Mahmood0%
9
Robert Jenrick0%
10
John Healey0%
11
Yvette Cooper0%
12
Ed Miliband0%
13
Bridget Phillipson0%
14
Lisa Nandy0%
15
Richard Tice0%
16
Mel Stride0%
17
Boris Johnson0%
18
Lucy Powell0%
19
Jonathan Reynolds0%
20
Emma Reynolds0%
21
James Cleverly0%
22
Rachel Reeves0%
23
Keir Starmer0%
24
Ed Davey0%
25
Rupert Lowe0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 62%, a 38-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
26¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
18¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-6¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 17.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 26c. Based on 146 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=1,539). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Kemi Badenoch at 26¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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