What are the current odds for NE Patriots vs BUF Bills: Spread?

BUF Bills wins by over 1.5 points 72%, BUF Bills wins by over 2.5 points 70%, BUF Bills wins by over 3.5 points 62%, BUF Bills wins by over 4.5 points 59%, BUF Bills wins by over 5.5 points 57%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Sports

NE Patriots vs BUF Bills: Spread

Live Kalshi odds · 27 outcomesMultiple can happen

▲6Biggest move: NE Patriots wins by over 4.5 points up to 16% recently.

BUF Bills wins by over 1.5 points72%

BUF Bills wins by over 2.5 points70%

BUF Bills wins by over 3.5 points62%

BUF Bills wins by over 4.5 points▼159%

BUF Bills wins by over 5.5 points▲157%

BUF Bills wins by over 6.5 points53%

BUF Bills wins by over 7.5 points44%

BUF Bills wins by over 9.5 points42%

BUF Bills wins by over 10.5 points37%

BUF Bills wins by over 13.5 points31%

BUF Bills wins by over 14.5 points26%

BUF Bills wins by over 16.5 points23%

NE Patriots wins by over 1.5 points▼323%

NE Patriots wins by over 2.5 points▼122%

BUF Bills wins by over 17.5 points21%

NE Patriots wins by over 3.5 points18%

BUF Bills wins by over 20.5 points▲117%

NE Patriots wins by over 4.5 points▲616%

NE Patriots wins by over 5.5 points14%

NE Patriots wins by over 6.5 points13%

BUF Bills wins by over 23.5 points12%

NE Patriots wins by over 7.5 points10%

NE Patriots wins by over 9.5 points9%

BUF Bills wins by over 27.5 points▲28%

NE Patriots wins by over 10.5 points▲17%

NE Patriots wins by over 13.5 points▲15%

NE Patriots wins by over 14.5 points▼13%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 774%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

72¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

77¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 76.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 72c. Based on 1,319 settled sports markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 75% of the time (n=1,742). The price implies 72%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, BUF Bills wins by over 1.5 points at 72¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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