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Green Bay vs New York J: Spread

Live Kalshi odds · 25 outcomesMultiple can happen
▼5Biggest move: New York J wins by over 9.5 points down to 13% recently.
1
Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points59%
2
Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points▼156%
3
Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points▼147%
4
Green Bay wins by over 5.5 points43%
5
Green Bay wins by over 4.5 points▼143%
6
Green Bay wins by over 6.5 points40%
7
New York J wins by over 1.5 points35%
8
New York J wins by over 2.5 points▲233%
9
Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points▼232%
10
Green Bay wins by over 9.5 points▲130%
11
New York J wins by over 3.5 points26%
12
Green Bay wins by over 10.5 points▼125%
13
New York J wins by over 4.5 points▲224%
14
Green Bay wins by over 13.5 points▼122%
15
New York J wins by over 5.5 points▲222%
16
New York J wins by over 6.5 points▲220%
17
Green Bay wins by over 14.5 points18%
18
Green Bay wins by over 16.5 points▼116%
19
New York J wins by over 7.5 points▲114%
20
Green Bay wins by over 17.5 points▼113%
21
New York J wins by over 9.5 points▼513%
22
Green Bay wins by over 20.5 points10%
23
New York J wins by over 10.5 points▼110%
24
New York J wins by over 13.5 points8%
25
New York J wins by over 14.5 points▲27%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 666%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
59¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
54¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-3¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 53.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 59c. Based on 1,317 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 55% of the time (n=1,929). The price implies 59%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points at 59¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP20GBNYJ">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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