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Odds boards / Entertainment

Next James Bond film: Artist performing the James Bond Theme

Live Kalshi odds · 22 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Lorde83%
2
Olivia Dean36%
3
Raye26%
4
Lana Del Rey21%
5
Dua Lipa15%
6
Lady Gaga12%
7
Oasis11%
8
Harry Styles10%
9
Ed Sheeran9%
10
Miley Cyrus9%
11
The Weeknd7%
12
Sam Fender7%
13
Chappell Roan7%
14
Beyonce6%
15
Taylor Swift4%
16
Sabrina Carpenter2%
17
Ariana Grande1%
18
SZA1%
19
Coldplay1%
20
U21%
21
Elton John1%
22
Lewis Capaldi1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 271%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
83¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
85¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
+1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 84.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 83c. Based on 720 settled markets across all categories in the 80-89c band (we do not yet hold enough entertainment history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the entertainment curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 85% of the time (n=720). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Lorde at 83¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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