Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 108%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
29¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
18¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-9¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 17.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 29c. Based on 146 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=1,539). The price implies 29%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Cillian Murphy at 29¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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