What are the current odds for 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

J.D. Vance 34%, Marco Rubio 21%, Ron DeSantis 17%, Tucker Carlson 4%, John McEntee 4%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

2028 Republican presidential nominee

Live Kalshi odds · 52 outcomesOne winner

Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%

Donald J. Trump1%

Donald J. Trump Jr.1%

Byron Donalds1%

Josh Hawley1%

Katie Britt1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 105%, a 5-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

34¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

35¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 35.0% of the time against a 34c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 3,577 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 35% of the time (n=3,577). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, J.D. Vance at 34¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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