What are the current odds for 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

J.D. Vance 44%, Marco Rubio 23%, Ron DeSantis 5%, Donald J. Trump Jr. 4%, Tucker Carlson 4%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

2028 Republican presidential nominee

Live Kalshi odds · 38 outcomesOne winner

J.D. Vance▲144%

Marco Rubio▲123%

Ron DeSantis5%

Donald J. Trump Jr.4%

Tucker Carlson▲14%

Donald J. Trump▲13%

Thomas Massie1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 99% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

44¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

44¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 43.6% of the time against a 44c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,572 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 44% of the time (n=1,572). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, J.D. Vance at 44¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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