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Odds boards / Weather

Where will it rain on Aug 15, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 20 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Miami99%
2
Denver77%
3
Minneapolis76%
4
Chicago54%
5
Atlanta40%
6
San Francisco22%
7
Seattle18%
8
Las Vegas17%
9
Washington DC16%
10
Phoenix14%
11
Boston12%
12
San Antonio11%
13
Austin10%
14
New Orleans10%
15
Houston10%
16
New York City8%
17
Philadelphia6%
18
Los Angeles1%
19
Dallas1%
20
Oklahoma City1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 503%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 87% of the time (n=262). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 12 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Miami at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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