Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 23 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
23¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
25¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 25.0% of the time against a 23c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 509 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=509). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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