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Odds boards / Weather

Where will it rain on Oct 3, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 30 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Washington DC99%
2
Dallas99%
3
New Orleans97%
4
Houston79%
5
San Antonio72%
6
Austin71%
7
Minneapolis70%
8
College Station66%
9
Atlanta60%
10
Miami53%
11
Oklahoma City12%
12
Philadelphia11%
13
Trenton8%
14
New York City4%
15
Milwaukee4%
16
Newark3%
17
Lexington3%
18
Providence3%
19
Columbus2%
20
Chicago1%
21
Denver1%
22
Los Angeles1%
23
Las Vegas1%
24
San Francisco1%
25
Seattle1%
26
Boston1%
27
Phoenix1%
28
Pittsburgh1%
29
Albuquerque1%
30
Springfield1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 827%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,455). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Washington DC at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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