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Odds boards / Weather

Where will it rain on Oct 15, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 34 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
St. Louis99%
2
Chicago98%
3
Oklahoma City97%
4
Milwaukee97%
5
Minneapolis96%
6
Detroit95%
7
Springfield95%
8
Washington DC93%
9
Lexington90%
10
Denver88%
11
Indianapolis88%
12
Columbus62%
13
Pittsburgh51%
14
Miami50%
15
Dallas44%
16
Tampa23%
17
Trenton21%
18
Philadelphia19%
19
Houston13%
20
San Antonio11%
21
Austin9%
22
New York City7%
23
Newark6%
24
College Station2%
25
Los Angeles1%
26
Las Vegas1%
27
New Orleans1%
28
San Francisco1%
29
Seattle1%
30
Boston1%
31
Phoenix1%
32
Atlanta1%
33
Providence1%
34
Albuquerque1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1364%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,518). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, St. Louis at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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