Odds boards / Other

TSA passenger screenings on Oct 27, 2026

Live Kalshi odds · 15 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
At least 1,800,000 passengers94%
2
At least 1,900,000 passengers78%
3
At least 2,000,000 passengers23%
4
At least 2,200,000 passengers6%
5
At least 2,100,000 passengers3%
6
At least 3,200,000 passengers3%
7
At least 2,300,000 passengers0%
8
At least 2,400,000 passengers0%
9
At least 2,500,000 passengers0%
10
At least 2,600,000 passengers0%
11
At least 2,700,000 passengers0%
12
At least 2,800,000 passengers0%
13
At least 2,900,000 passengers0%
14
At least 3,000,000 passengers0%
15
At least 3,100,000 passengers0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 207%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
94¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
96¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
+1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 96.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 94c. Based on 124 settled other markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,647). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, At least 1,800,000 passengers at 94¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXTSAD-26OCT27">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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