What are the current odds for How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026??

Above 91,500 MW 9%, Above 92,000 MW 6%, Above 92,500 MW 4%, Above 93,000 MW 4%, Above 94,000 MW 3%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 7 outcomesMultiple can happen

▲2Biggest move: Above 91,500 MW up to 9% recently.

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 32%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

9¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

5¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 4.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 9c. Based on 147 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Above 91,500 MW at 9¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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