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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 26, 2026

Live Kalshi odds · 19 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Above 60,000 MW93%
2
Above 59,500 MW92%
3
Above 61,500 MW42%
4
Above 62,000 MW18%
5
Above 65,500 MW11%
6
Above 64,000 MW4%
7
Above 62,500 MW3%
8
Above 64,500 MW3%
9
Above 66,000 MW3%
10
Above 65,000 MW2%
11
Above 66,500 MW1%
12
Above 67,000 MW1%
13
Above 58,000 MW0%
14
Above 58,500 MW0%
15
Above 59,000 MW0%
16
Above 60,500 MW0%
17
Above 61,000 MW0%
18
Above 63,000 MW0%
19
Above 63,500 MW0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 273%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
93¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
96¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
+2¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 95.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 93c. Based on 123 settled other markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,606). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Above 60,000 MW at 93¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXTXERCOTPEAKD-26OCT27">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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