How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Next government of the United Kingdom?

Live Kalshi odds · 19 outcomesOne winner

Labour majority20%

Reform UK minority + Conservative support15%

Reform UK minority11%

Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition11%

Labour minority + Green support9%

Labour minority8%

Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition8%

Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support7%

Labour minority + SNP support7%

Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support7%

Reform UK minority + DUP support7%

Reform UK majority6%

Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition6%

Conservative minority4%

Reform UK and Conservative coalition3%

Conservative minority + Reform UK support3%

Conservative majority2%

Conservative minority + DUP support1%

Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 136%, a 36-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 27% of the time (n=144). The price implies 20%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Labour majority at 20¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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