ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosTaxes
☆
Odds boards / Other

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 1, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 15 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
5.11% or above99%
2
5.13% or above99%
3
5.15% or above99%
4
5.17% or above99%
5
5.19% or above99%
6
5.21% or above98%
7
5.25% or above95%
8
5.27% or above91%
9
5.23% or above90%
10
5.29% or above81%
11
5.31% or above51%
12
5.33% or above39%
13
5.35% or above8%
14
5.37% or above4%
15
5.39% or above1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1053%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,424). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 5.11% or above at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXUST10AD-26OCT01" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 1, 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXUST10AD-26OCT01">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.