What are the current odds for What will JD Vance say during his rally in Howell, Michigan??

Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime 83%, Border 81%, Afford / Affordable / Affordability 81%, Oil / Gas / Gasoline 80%, Fraud 79%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Politics

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Howell, Michigan?

Live Kalshi odds · 30 outcomesMultiple can happen

Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime83%

Border81%

Afford / Affordable / Affordability81%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline80%

Fraud79%

Biden78%

Social Security76%

Working Class / Middle Class69%

Economy / Economic51%

Inflation51%

Manufacture / Manufacturing50%

Auto Worker / Autoworker49%

Nuclear43%

Illegal Alien41%

Healthcare32%

Ford / General Motors / GM31%

Electric Vehicle / EV29%

Canada / Canadian23%

Tariff23%

AI / Artificial Intelligence20%

China / Chinese16%

Made in America / American Made15%

Fake News12%

Small Business11%

Event does not qualify1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1408%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

83¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

86¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 85.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 83c. Based on 1,549 settled markets across all categories in the 80-89c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,549). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime at 83¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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