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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Weatherford, Texas?

Live Kalshi odds · 27 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Border99%
2
Biden99%
3
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime99%
4
Social Security99%
5
Fraud99%
6
Oil / Gas / Gasoline99%
7
Afford / Affordable / Affordability99%
8
Manufacture / Manufacturing99%
9
American Dream99%
10
America First99%
11
Drill / Drilling99%
12
Illegal Alien3%
13
Radical Left2%
14
Steel1%
15
Midterm1%
16
Working Class / Middle Class1%
17
2028 / Campaign1%
18
Inflation1%
19
Economy / Economic1%
20
Healthcare1%
21
Tariff1%
22
Small Business1%
23
China / Chinese1%
24
Nuclear1%
25
Made in America / American Made1%
26
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
27
Event does not qualify1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1108%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,668). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Border at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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