Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 127%, a 27-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
32¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
35¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 35.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 32c. Based on 2,758 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 35% of the time (n=3,559). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Aryna Sabalenka at 32¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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