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Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?

Live Kalshi odds · 14 outcomesOne winner
1
Chen Jining21%
2
Ding Xuexiang17%
3
Zhao Leji13%
4
Li Xi11%
5
Li Qiang9%
6
Zhang Guoqing5%
7
Cai Qi3%
8
Li Ganjie3%
9
Ma Xingrui2%
10
Yin Li1%
11
He Lifeng1%
12
Wang Huning0%
13
Chen Min'er0%
14
Yin Yong0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 86%, a 14-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 27% of the time (n=144). The price implies 21%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Chen Jining at 21¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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