What are the odds of "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.3300?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 96%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 96% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will average gas prices be above $4.3300?

Above 4.3300

96%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 96 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

57¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

57¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.3% of the time against a 57c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 349 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,739). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will Haley Stevens leave the Democratic party?50%Will James Fishback endorse David Jolly in the 2026 Florida governor election before Nov 362%Marc Marquez wins33%Alex Marquez wins10%Will Hillary Scholten endorse Mike Rogers in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election before6%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXAAAGASDWY-26NOV02-4.3300" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will average **gas prices** be above $4.3300? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXAAAGASDWY-26NOV02-4.3300">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.