What are the odds of "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 3%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 3% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026?

Before November

3%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 3 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

4¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 4.8% of the time against a 4c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 147 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). The price implies 3%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Gold price up in next 15 mins?78%Both Teams To Score21%Silver price up in next 15 mins?79%Will Rory McIlroy win the BMW PGA Championship?10%Will Joaquin Niemann win the BMW PGA Championship?5%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXALIENS-26NOV" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXALIENS-26NOV">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.