Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

D-House, R-Senate

38%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 38 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

39¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

32¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 31.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 39c. Based on 63 settled other markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 35% of the time (n=720). The price implies 38%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?53%Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?47%Will James Fishback receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republica2%Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?5%Will James Fishback receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republica9%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DR" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DR">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.