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Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110 USD/Bbl on October 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM E

Above $110
81%
implied chance of YES
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 81 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
84¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
74¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
-9¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 74.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 84c. Based on 43 settled economics markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,559). The price implies 81%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.