Live odds / Sports

Suriname wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Suriname wins by more than 1.5 goals

11%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 11 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

13¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

14¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.3% of the time against a 13c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,004 settled sports markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,427). The price implies 11%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.