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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026?

Above 3.5%
91%
implied chance of YES▲ 10 today
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 91 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
91¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
83¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
-7¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 83.3% of the time, and the crowd is charging 91c. Based on 48 settled economics markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,414). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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