Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Award

Jeremy Allen White

7%

implied chance of YES▲ 1 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 7 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

8¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

4¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 4.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 8c. Based on 244 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,892). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Open de España presented by Madrid: Tyrrell Hatton wins50%Open de España presented by Madrid: Marco Penge wins1%Open de España presented by Madrid: Connor Syme wins4%Open de España presented by Madrid: Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra wins16%Open de España presented by Madrid: Jacob Skov Olesen wins6%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.