Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2029 F1 season?

Before the 2029 season

65%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 65 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 68% of the time (n=214). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?1%Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?1%The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?99%The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?12%Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?55%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXF1RETIRE-30VERSTAPPEN-2029" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2029 F1 season? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXF1RETIRE-30VERSTAPPEN-2029">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.