Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2

Above 5.00%

50%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 50 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

96¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

83¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-12¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 83.3% of the time, and the crowd is charging 96c. Based on 48 settled economics markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=3,285). The price implies 50%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026?4%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026?16%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026?33%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 297%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026?2%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXFED-27DEC-T5.00" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2 - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXFED-27DEC-T5.00">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.