Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2

99%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 92.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 95c. Based on 721 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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