Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM

Above 2.00%

71%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 71 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

90¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

92¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 92.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 90c. Based on 721 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 75% of the time (n=946). The price implies 71%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29569.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT?41%Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29769.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 11am EDT?3%Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29869.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT?2%Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29899.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT?2%Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29699.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT?21%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-32JAN01-T2.00" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM  - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-32JAN01-T2.00">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.