Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be

James Talarico, 6-8%

12%

implied chance of YES▼ 2 today

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 12 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

11¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

15¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 11c. Based on 252 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,832). The price implies 12%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.