Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the gold close price be above 4005 USD/t.oz on November 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST?

Above $4005

88%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 88 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

89¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

86¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 85.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 89c. Based on 71 settled other markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,694). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?36%Sonora cattle imports suspended for at least 90 days?20%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.0100?52%Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot at the opening of the 120th Co91%Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 16, 2026?12%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXGOLDD-26NOV0917-T4005" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the gold close price be above 4005 USD/t.oz on November 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXGOLDD-26NOV0917-T4005">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.