Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will it be confirmed that human error caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on Nov 13?

Human error

12%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 12 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

14¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

14¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.3% of the time against a 14c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 265 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=3,021). The price implies 12%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will it be confirmed that a problem with the FAA's SMART air traffic management system cau18%Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or c87%Will it be confirmed that a specific identified malfunction, error, damage or other event 98%Will it be confirmed that a software or configuration error caused the FAA's nationwide gr72%Will it be confirmed that a failure in a network or system run by L3Harris caused the FAA'93%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.