What are the odds of "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 23%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 23% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Before Dec 1, 2026

23%

implied chance of YES▲ 4 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 23 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

28¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

18¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-8¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 17.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 28c. Based on 146 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=1,539). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?4%Will Patrick Reed win the Omega European Masters?7%Both Teams To Score5%Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on August 31, 2026 b1%Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?15%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26DEC01" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26DEC01">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.