Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

Will Democrats hold at least 260 House seats after the 2028 election?

At least 260

99%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,694). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Politics markets

What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Salina, Kansas originally scheduled for2%What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Salina, Kansas originally scheduled for92%What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Salina, Kansas originally scheduled for85%What will JD Vance say during midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for Nov76%What will JD Vance say during midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for Nov76%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXHOUSESEATSD-29-260" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Democrats hold at least 260 House seats after the 2028 election? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXHOUSESEATSD-29-260">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.